Resolution-Oriented Framework

Objective

To provide a structured, resolution-oriented methodology for analyzing high-risk conflicts and identifying de-escalation pathways. This framework ensures each briefing remains operational, practical, and focused on preventing escalation into broader war.

1. Problem Definition

Conflicts ignite and escalate because of identifiable conditions. This step categorizes:

• Ignition Risk – the immediate condition that could spark escalation.
• Fuel – long-term structural drivers (e.g., territorial claims, ideology).
• Accelerant – developments that heighten tensions (e.g., new weapons, alliances).
• Blockade – entrenched obstacles to dialogue (e.g., sovereignty disputes).

2. Center of Gravity

Pinpoints the true vulnerability — often a missing mechanism or weak channel — that transforms minor incidents into crises. Stabilizing this “hotwire” is essential to de-escalation.

3. Resolution Levers

Practical, face-saving mechanisms that bypass political deadlocks. These include:

• Technical Safety Channels – maritime/aviation hotlines, incident reporting.
• Track-1.5 Dialogues – semi-official, expert-driven talks.
• Third-Party Umbrellas – neutral or regional conveners to diffuse political pressure.

4. Sequenced Roadmap

Resolution requires phased, measurable timelines:

• 90 Days – immediate technical risk-reduction measures.
• 6 Months – structured dialogues and confidence-building protocols.
• 12 Months – institutionalized channels with international reinforcement.

5. Narrative Frames

Each side requires a face-saving storyline. Narratives are crafted to maintain domestic legitimacy while supporting de-escalation:

• Side A – sovereignty, strength, or stability preserved.
• Side B – safety, livelihoods, or status quo protected.
• International Community – stability, supply chain continuity, global peace.

6. Conclusion and Next Steps

Summarizes plausibility, survivability, and operational testability of the resolution pathway. Defines actionable next steps for direct actors, neutral facilitators, and international partners.