MISSION STATEMENT
Provide a resolution-focused assessment of the China–Taiwan flashpoint. Identify
operational vulnerabilities and concrete de-escalation levers that reduce the probability
of crisis or war. Prioritize actionable mechanisms over narrative analysis. Output is a
sequenced, politically survivable pathway that preserves the status quo and supply-chain
stability.
SITUATION OVERVIEW
The Taiwan Strait is a high-risk contact zone in the Indo-Pacific. Since 2016, formal
cross-strait hotlines have been suspended, increasing the chance that routine incidents
escalate. Beijing frames reunification as inevitable. Taipei maintains autonomous
governance with growing U.S. defense integration and informal partner support.
- Actors: PRC, Taiwan, U.S./allies, commercial shipping and aviation.
- Friction: Frequent military drills, air/sea intercepts, information ops.
- Exposure: Semiconductor output and global shipping lanes through the strait.
- Failure Mode: No risk-reduction channel; accidents convert to crises.
- Resolution Need: Technical hotlines, transparency rules, neutral hosting, and a sequenced roadmap.
PROBLEM DEFINITION
IGNITION RISK: Communications blackout since 2016. No functional hotlines.
FUEL: Beijing’s reunification rhetoric.
ACCELERANT: Taiwan defense modernization; U.S. integration.
EXPOSURE: Global semiconductor and shipping lifelines.
BLOCKADE: Political preconditions (“One China” vs. “sovereignty”).
CENTER OF GRAVITY
No risk-reduction channel: accidents escalate to crisis.
RESOLUTION LEVERS
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a. TECHNICAL SAFETY CHANNEL
Create aviation/maritime operator hotline via neutral host (e.g., Singapore/Switzerland).
Staff: coast guard, aviation, shipping reps.
Mission: incident report within 60 minutes.
Framing: “regional safety measure” (Beijing) / “technical hotline” (Taipei).
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b. TRACK-1.5 DIALOGUE
Semi-official working groups on shipping continuity and drill transparency.
Deliverables: behavior rules, NOTAM/NAVWARN standards, quarterly reviews.
Framing: “industry consultation” / “multilateral risk management.”
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c. THIRD-PARTY UMBRELLA
ASEAN chair or EU envoy convenes “regional safety group.”
Publish guidelines as multilateral—not bilateral—agreements.
Maintains face for both Beijing and Taipei.
SEQUENCED ROADMAP
- 90 DAYS: Reactivate hotline under technical cover; initial transparency rules in place.
- 6 MONTHS: Establish quarterly review cycle; adopt shipping/semiconductor continuity protocol.
- 12 MONTHS: Institutionalize safety channel under neutral host; reaffirm “peaceful resolution, status quo preserved.”
STRATEGIC NARRATIVE
BEIJING: “Creating stable conditions for peaceful development.”
TAIPEI: “Protecting safety and livelihoods; status quo preserved.”
INTERNATIONAL COMMUNITY: “Preserve supply chain stability and regional peace.”
CONCLUSION
The proposed resolution framework is operationally viable and politically durable.
Establishing a neutral, technical hotline—as structured via a trusted host—can
significantly lower the risk of unintended escalation. Success hinges on maintaining
both strategic balance and clear communication channels under neutral oversight.
NEXT STEPS
- Initiate exploratory discussions with potential neutral hosts to validate
technical and political feasibility.
- Draft standard operating procedures focusing strictly on operational and
technical scope, avoiding political framing.
- Develop messaging strategy for stakeholders emphasizing risk mitigation,
status quo preservation, and supply-chain continuity.
UNCLASSIFIED